Dollar, S&P 500

Finally back in action after a long break.  Things are not looking good right now.

I am mostly cash at the moment, but things are looking very interesting for longer term. The dollar index seems to be holding a nice triangle for the moment.  I'm looking for a break of this before initiating any position.  The Fed kept fund rates low at .25% again, and the FOMC meeting will be very key to watch this afternoon. 

Also the S&P 500 is on a recent rally from the just above the 200 EMA.  It has broken it's 2 year uptrend line.  A possible test of this level around 132-135(SPY).  I'm treating that as a key level to see what is to come, I'm optimistic holding a few longs.  This might mean further dollar decline.  Hence mostly cash. patience.

Fidelity National Financial, Inc. (FNF)

Fidelity National has been range trading for the past 2 years now with an upper resistance of $16.  Recently FNF broke out of the $15 resistance.  A retest of the $16 should be expected.  If that level breaks it could signal a nice uptrend to the 2008 levels of around $20.  Currently the P/E ratio sits at 9.43 and a leading P/E of 12.34.  The industry average P/E is 10.86.  If a closer to competitor P/E is obtained this should be trading around $17-$18 a share.  Book value per share is $15.30, bringing the P/B ratio to .97, indicates an undervalued company.  It's important to note Fidelity has a beta of .64, showing lower market risk, and pays out a nice 3.20% dividend.  A break of $16 is key for FNF to move higher.  The earnings announcement tomorrow, 4/28/11, may or may not prove to be a significant catalyst.

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Eli Lily & Co. (LLY)

Eli Lily broke out of the Oct 2010 highs of $37.20 and closed at $37.23.  LLY P/E ratio is a low 8.46, compared to an industry average of 14.44.  If LLY can manage to pull off a more reasonable 10 P/E, it would be worth approximately $44. Interestingly enough the forward P/E is at 10.04 for 2012.  With a beta of only .80, LLY seems to be less risky than the market.   I believe the $44 target is a reasonable estimate of LLY fair value.  In the short term I expect a pull back to the $36.50 level, due to the RSI being above 70 signaling overbought, before continuing the uptrend.  LLY also offers a 5.40% dividend.

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S&P 500 ($SPX)

S&P 500 broke out of the Feb 2011 high of $1345 today.  We saw a nice bounce off the 50 EMA the past 2 weeks, and should continue it's bull run.  My target is the May 2008 level of $1400.

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Ford Motor Co. (F)

Ford saw a nice bounce off of it's 200 EMA last week, and is looking to continue it's bullish trend.  If the $16 level can be broken, this thing should re-test the January 2011 highs of $19. 

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Flagstar Bancorp, Inc. (FBC)

Flagstar Bancorp has been beaten down by heavy non-preforming loan losses, and dilution.  I believe this is an extreme long term value play, and should see massive upside growth in the next 2-3years.   Today Flagstar reported Q1 earnings at a loss of -$.06 per share, compared to a loss of -$.74 in Q1 of 2010.  I believe Flagstar has a chance to breakeven, or report positive earnings next quarter.  Technically Flagstar just broke out of a nasty month and a half downtrend from March 1st. A break of the $1.60 level is essential, and if broken i believe this is a $2 in the short term.  One positive results are shown and some shares can be repurchased, this one will definitely take off in my opinion. 

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Symmetry Medical Inc. (SMA)

Symmetry Medical seems to be finding support at the $9.85 level.  A breakout above the $10.25 level will be confirmation for a long position.  Target price of $11, and then $12 if the momentum continues. The 50 EMA is above the 100 EMA, which is above the 200 EMA.  Looking very bullish.

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Rex American Resources Corp. (REX)

REX American resources has a book value per share of $25.18, and currently trades at $16.75.  I believe this is a value play and worth around $20.  It's P/B ratio is a .64.  Technically this looks like it is setting up a long play.  Once the $17 resistance is broken, a nice uptrend should form and take this to the June 2010 high of $19.20.  I believe their is a nice 17-20% upside to this.



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Whirlpool, Inc. (WHR)

Whirlpool looks like it's finding support at the $87 level after today's close.  I see a further up move to test the $91 high of February 2011 high. A break of this level could suggest a continuation to the $110 level which was the high for 2010.  EPS increased 84% from 09-10 to $7.98, which is right around the 2007 EPS number of 8.01.  Net income increased 88% from 09-10 as well.  I believe this stock is worth around $100.       


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Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)

Microsoft looks like a bargain here to me.  The stock has found support at the $24.75 level three separate times, twice within the past two months.  This indicates a possible triple bottom pattern.  If the $26.50 level breaks, this will offer some confirmation and possible start to a nice uptrend.  Wall street analyst and hedge funds seem to be bullish on this as well.  My target is $29 for the coming months.  

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